Timberman check-in: April

I've decided that at the end of each month between now and August, I'm going to do a self-assessment about how I'm feeling about Timberman (a half ironman distance triathlon, consisting of a 1.2 mile lake swim, a 56-mile bike ride, and then a 13.1 mile half marathon run.) There are so many more emotions swirling around for Timberman than there were for the Boston Marathon. Here's a top ten list:

1. This past Boston would have been/was my 4th marathon. I already knew I could do it. In my lifetime, I have done 1 (ONE) triathlon, which was sprint distance -- a 1/4 mile swim, a 10 mile bike ride, and 3.1 mile run.
2. I ran Boston with a charity team, one of many charity teams, that proudly make up the back of the pack. I had no fear that I would be left behind. There are no charity teams in a half ironman.
3. There are middle school boys in charge of stripping your wetsuit off of you when you are finished with the swim and getting ready to get on the bike. Middle school boys. Wetsuit. Either one of those deserves its own bullet point.
4. I'm terrified of biking, and I'll be on a bike for like 4.5 hours.
5. And then I have to run a half marathon after that.
6. I fear the hills. I remind you of this graphic, which I referred to in an earlier post.

7.  Percentage of the population that have completed a marathon: .5%
     Percentage of the population that have completed a half ironman: less than 1/10th of 1%
     My BMI: 75th percentile. (Of the entire population. I'm sure in the 100th percentile for triathletes.)
8. I've never successfully changed a flat tire on my bike, although I have practiced. (Thanks, Keener!)

9. Did I mention the wetsuit?

10. And the middle school boys?

Here's the formula I'll use at the end of the next 4 months. Hopefully we'll see some progress as the months go by.

Swim:
Level of enjoyment (1 - 10): 8 I like to swim. I look forward to it. What I don't like is circle swimming (splitting the lane is ok).
Level of confidence (1 - 10): 8 Of the 3 events, swimming is probably my forte.
Specific concerns: I've only been in the safety of the pool. I have some concerns that I'll really miss the wall when I move to the open water (both for kicking off of, and resting between sets). I'll also need to get used to swimming with others, getting kicked in the face, etc. None of which I've experienced ever. In my first & only tri, I started in a "newbie" wave, with everyone hanging back to let others go ahead. We were a timid group. There was no swimming over people, no kicking people in the face, etc. I'm going to guess Timberman won't be anything like that. I will probably need to wear relatively new goggles on race day, as mine fog up pretty badly after a couple hundred meters.
Pace estimate: Average pace for the Timberman swim is 2:13 per 100m. My average pace on my last 2000m swim was 2:24 per 100m including resting breaks. Stab in the dark guess at my pace on race day, probably 2:15 per 100m.

Bike:
Level of enjoyment (1 - 10): 4 The bike scares me. There are too many moving parts. I don't even know what they are called.
Level of confidence (1 - 10): 2 I know how to ride a bike enough to get from point A to point B. That's about it.
Specific concerns: I don't know what gear to be in, ever. I am afraid of speed so I find myself braking while coasting downhill. I am barely able to make it up tiny little hills. I'm afraid that I'll come to a stop on a steep hill, not be able to unclip, and fall over, causing a major bike collision on the course. I don't know how to repair a flat or change a tube. I've never ridden more than 20 miles at a time. My cousin told me of a girl who was biking on the Timberman course (not on race day) and was knocked off of her bike by a 2x4 that was hanging over the side of some guy's pickup truck; smacked her on the head, off of her bike, and the truck just kept on driving, totally oblivious. I'm afraid of drivers swerving onto the shoulder while texting. I'm afraid of potholes. I'm afraid of sand. I'm afraid of wind.
Pace estimate: My average speed is 12mph. The average speed for the Timberman course is about 19mph. Stab in the dark guess at my pace on race day, hopefully 15mph, but I'll have to work my ass off between now and then to make that happen.

Run: 

Level of enjoyment (1 - 10): 7 I like to run. Not sure if I'll still think that after being on a bike for multiple hours.
Level of confidence (1 - 10): 8 The confidence indicator is more a measure of my level of ease, not confidence in my speed. I'm fairly confident that I won't fall down and get hurt. I can always walk. I'm really confident about that.
Specific concerns: Mostly it's the running after doing 4-5 hours of swimming & biking that concerns me. That, and no ipod.
Pace estimate: Average pace for the Timberman half marathon is 9:27/mile. My best pace in a half marathon is 10:13/mile. Stab in the dark guess at my pace on race day, probably low to mid 11:00's.